Dodd/Kucinich 08': Election Blu-Galoo

[davy]

on the other hand, if he wins something unexpectedly--rhode island, say, or especially ohio--it's done, it's over, completely. she'll be totally devoid of anything resembling a case or a compelling story.

if he just wins texas and vermont, my call is that nothing changes. she'll be on a gradual decline, maybe, but the primary day will be considered a draw and this will keep going for another month or two, with obama being the eventual nominee.

if he loses texas, i think he's in trouble. at least until pennsylvania, which he will have to win. i fear for him if he can't win any of the big states going into the convention, whether or not he's got the pledged delegate lead.

[DCDave]

Why not blame Hilary for not being an exciting, appealing candidate?  Why not blame Hilary for not dropping out sooner?  Why not blame Hilary for running a shit campaign?

I'll vote for Hilary if she promises to END TORTURE.  But she hasn't.

[elpollodiablo]

That is seriously the only issue you think is relevant or important? What the fuck?

And why in the fuck should she drop out when she's trailing by just about 100 delegates?

[dieblucasdie]

Close victories tonight in OH and TX for Clinton (the most likely outcome) will change nothing; She needs a double-digit win in PA to stay viable.

It's looking depressingly like it's going to be up to the superdelegates though.  At this point it's basically going to be impossible for Clinton to secure the nom with pledged delegates, and Clinton would have to drop out after PA for Obama to do it.

edit: pollo, because Obama is going to continue picking up delegates in small state primaries and caucuses, and she the way delegates are allocated, she would need substantial victories either tonight or at PA to make up any ground at all.

[elpollodiablo]

Also yeah we should totally blame her for not being more naturally charismatic or not giving vague yet exciting stump speeches

Let's also blame her for being repellent to about a quarter of the voting public for the simple fact that she's not a man

[andronicus]

People keep talking about NAFTA, is there something going on with NAFTA that I don't know about?  Or is this the month where the Old Left sits in a circle on the floor black-shawled and chanting NAFTA NAFTA NAFTA.

[davy]

Also I'd like to say that the only way HC loses to McCain is if the petulant, selfish Obama-only supporters (ie Dave) decide to sit out the general because their man lost the primary.

not sure if that was directed at me--i expect not, since i haven't said anything to that end--but i'll respond. i am a huge obama supporter, and if he doesn't get the nomination, i'll be very, very disappointed. but nowhere near disappointed enough to sit out the general election. hilary will get my enthusiastic vote in november...unless, that is, she pulls some devious bullshit to secure the nomination.

and i'm kind of afriad of that happening, to tell the truth.

[elpollodiablo]

That was directed at Dave, actually

[jebreject]

People keep talking about NAFTA, is there something going on with NAFTA that I don't know about?  Or is this the month where the Old Left sits in a circle on the floor black-shawled and chanting NAFTA NAFTA NAFTA.

the latter, to be sure

[DCDave]

That is seriously the only issue you think is relevant or important? What the fuck?

And why in the fuck should she drop out when she's trailing by just about 100 delegates?

If you STILL think Obama's stump speeches are vague then you're not listening to them or you don't understand public policy (my guess is the latter).  She should drop out because she was supposed to just straight up win, and she didn't, and she's been flailing for two months now, and because Obama can beat McCain easier than she can, and because she shouldn't be an egomaniac about it, and because her qualification to be President is that she used to be married to the President, and that her New York Senate race fucked the New York State Democratic Party, like this race is fucking the National Party.  But she's a Clinton!  It's her time! She'll win because she's a Clinton!  Not because she's a fear-monger who's trading in on the most opportunistic bullshit attacks that she can, and feeding the Republicans meat to use in the general election.

She should have dropped out so we could have a Democrat in the White House in '09.  But fuck the party and fuck America.  It's her turn! 

Also, I can't stand people who think that the United States should condone torture.  We should be better than that.

[Andrew_TSKS]

Also I'd like to say that the only way HC loses to McCain is if the petulant, selfish Obama-only supporters (ie Dave) decide to sit out the general because their man lost the primary. I don't think anyone should be a drone for either party, but if you can't swallow your pride and have a little bit of fucking loyalty once in a while, what good are you? Even if you don't like HC, she's going to be a MUCH fucking better president than McCain. It makes me sick to my stomach to think of all these kids willing to give the White House away just because things didn't work out exactly as they'd hoped. I don't even think HC will win the nomination, but once again I don't think she's been given a fair shake, and despite her flaws, I think she'd make an able and effective POTUS. What's really upsetting to me is that I almost voted Obama just because I'm scared of what'll happen if he loses and all his supporters just skulk off home and cede the general to the GOP. It's like his grass roots movement is holding the party hostage, and that shit sucks. If (when) HC loses, her supporters will do the right thing and put their backing behind our nominee. But if she wins, and then loses the general, I think a large part of the blame is going to go to Obama's cult of personality.

hardly anyone who backs obama is going to stay home out of spite rather than vote hillary but you're still wrong, because a lot of more moderate voters who like obama will vote mccain over hillary, perhaps even despite his flip-flopping away from his previous moderate credentials. and that's because they hate hillary. and if you think it's solely because she's a woman you've got your head in the fucking sand, it's not that at all, it's because BILL CLINTON'S PRESIDENCY DIVIDED THE COUNTRY, which is exactly how 2000 was able to happen, and if hillary is nominated in 2008 it shows that the democrats learned nothing and aren't smart enough to walk away from policies and public images that polarize people into "i love them" and "i hate them" camps with no inbetween. obama is a guy that even people who disagree with him politically tend to respect, while hillary's campaign has been unapologetic about many different shady campaign tactics they've used over the course of this race. it's things like that that make everyone who isn't already in her corner tend to hate her, not what's between her legs. that, and the fact that she's way more intensely identified with the clinton presidency of the 90s than any other democrat other than bill himself would be, for obvious reasons. there are a lot of people in the center and on the right willing to take their chances with a guy like obama who hate hillary clinton because of her political record and her alliances, and those people are going to be the ones who switch to mccain if hillary gets the nomination. if you don't realize this to be true you're being ignorant.

[elpollodiablo]

Fuck the party? Fuck the party? YOU'RE the one that said you'd sit out the general if she took the nomination! YOU ARE FUCKING THE PARTY.

And you can cool it with your condescending bullshit; I've watched/read/heard hours and hours of election coverage, stump speeches and debates, and the thing is this: when I have hard Obama talk policy, he's pretty much in lock step with Clinton. When he's not talking policy, he's saying things like "We are the change that we seek." What the fuck does that even mean? That kind of Hallmark feel-goodery does absolutely NOTHING for me, and it won't mean a goddamn thing when he's actually sitting in the White House. Maybe it'll shore up his approval ratings. He's a likable guy--I LIKE HIM. I just can't stand his rhetoric or his supporters, for the most part. An intern for his fucking campaign couldn't give me a valid reason to choose him over Clinton, for crissakes!

Also: "Obama can beat McCain easier than she can." Where's this coming from? Obama has it over McCain by one to three points in the polls I saw today at realclearpolitics; Clinton is either a point behind him or two ahead, depending on whom you're listening to. What are you basing this on exactly?

ALSO: "her qualification to be President is that she used to be married to the President." This is straight up reductive bullshit. You accused me of spouting prepackaged soundbytes about Obama's vague rhetoric? Take a fucking look at yourself, man.

[Andrew_TSKS]

miles, i think one thing you're going to have to realize here is that, if people campaigned in a way that pleased you, they'd lose most of the country, because you're a really angry person and you want vitriol, which typically turns the general public off of a candidate. obama's message of hope may piss you off, but you are in the minority. a lot of people feel better about things when they hear talk like that.

what's more, i feel like, if hillary's policies are basically in line with obama's, and the difference is that he inspires people, that alone makes him a better candidate. i don't think you feel that way, but again, you are in the minority on that one. people like hope, in general. they don't like having their hopes get shit all over.

also also, i don't like dave's tone but his objections to clinton's continuing candidacy are probably echoed by democratic party leaders right now, if not in public then at least in private.

[DCDave]

National polls != National electoral maps. 

Clinton's "We're gonna give everyone health care" != Obama's "Here is my plan for sending a generation of American students to college on the back of public service"

Me sitting out the nomination != Clinton forcing Obama to spend money on ads up to the convention, and essentially doing McCain's opposition research for him.  McCain doesn't need to expend resources to figure out how to attack Obama, when Clinton is doing it for him.

My vote in DC doesn't effect the outcome of the election.  I'm not going to vote for McCain, I'm going to vote for other races as I see fit.  You supporting Clinton today means Obama has to spend more money to beat her between now and June than he would have otherwise. 

Also, show me Clinton's lifetime record of public service comparable to Obama's.  Oh wait, she was a corporate lawyer and never ran for office until she grabbed a New York Senate seat so that she could run for President now.

Also, what Andrew said.

[guanajuato]

if hillary wins, at least at 3 am, when we are asleep, if something happens...you know the drill.

[elpollodiablo]

miles, i think one thing you're going to have to realize here is that, if people campaigned in a way that pleased you, they'd lose most of the country, because you're a really angry person and you want vitriol, which typically turns the general public off of a candidate. obama's message of hope may piss you off, but you are in the minority. a lot of people feel better about things when they hear talk like that.

what's more, i feel like, if hillary's policies are basically in line with obama's, and the difference is that he inspires people, that alone makes him a better candidate. i don't think you feel that way, but again, you are in the minority on that one. people like hope, in general. they don't like having their hopes get shit all over.

also also, i don't like dave's tone but his objections to clinton's continuing candidacy are probably echoed by democratic party leaders right now, if not in public then at least in private.

Hey Andrew? Don't think you know what kind of person I am because we post on an internet message board. If I were to characterize you based on your internet persona, I don't think you'd like the description. Believe me.

I don't want to fight with you guys anymore. We're on the same side, when it comes down to it. I made my decision, it's done, and we'll all see where the chips fall later tonight. I hope we can all come together in the primary.

[Andrew_TSKS]

well, ok, maybe you're not really as angry in real life as you generally seem on here, but i'm standing by this much of my point: the stuff that seems to turn you off about obama's campaign rhetoric really pleases a lot of other people, and i think you're in the minority in finding it distasteful. maybe i really don't know shit about why that is, and i apologize if i personally offended you. i was honestly just trying to make a point, and i guess i overstepped my bounds. but still, i swear, most people like that stuff.

and dude, i don't care that you voted for clinton. my friend jojo did too. it's a respectable position to take. i merely disagree with it.

[davy]

quick question:

why is nobody talking about the fact that in the past 3 weeks, obama has closed 20 point gaps in both of the major states voting today? regardless of who actually wins them, that's impressive.

[Good Intentions]

If you STILL think Obama's stump speeches are vague then you're not listening to them or you don't understand public policy (my guess is the latter).

Fuck off and die.

[Antero]

Fuck the party? Fuck the party? YOU'RE the one that said you'd sit out the general if she took the nomination! YOU ARE FUCKING THE PARTY.

If one refuses to vote for a candidate who engages in anti-democratic, underhanded tactics in a desperate grab for the nomination, I can hardly call that "fucking the party."  I call that having a sense of shame.

When the primaries started, I would have voted for Clinton if she took the nomination.  At this point, having seen what she'll attempt to do to take power, I doubt I would.

[davy]

yeah, i was pretty excite about the idea of her being the nominee 6 months ago. now the thought depresses me.

but i'll probably still vote for her if it comes to that.