Campaign '08: Now With 100% More Hatin'!

[elpollodiablo]

I'm cool with that. I hope the O taps Edwards for veep, though

[DCDave]

Edwards might endorse Hilary.

[elpollodiablo]

Godfuckingdammit

[C of heartbreak]

Hillary's also still leading in national polls, I believe.

[Andrew_TSKS]

Edwards might endorse Hilary.

seriously, why would he do this? he's much closer to obama on the issues where they have a difference in opinion.

Hillary's also still leading in national polls, I believe.

rudy giuliani was leading in national polls after iowa, where he came in sixth. then he started coming in sixth everywhere, and people woke up. i think obama is doing nothing but gaining ground right now, and i think super tuesday's going to be an even bigger push for him. and with edwards gone, i'll bet you anything that, no matter who edwards endorses, the edwards voters will break for obama over clinton at a ratio of, say, 2 to 1.

[Thermofusion]

This election was more fun with more candidates.  Now it's 70% less vaudeville and 100% more depressed resignation. 

[girl]

Well, I suppose that's my decision made for me.

Not happy.

[DCDave]

Edwards might endorse Hilary.

seriously, why would he do this? he's much closer to obama on the issues where they have a difference in opinion.

Because the Clinton camp has been buttering him up for a while.

[heather marie]

This election was more fun with more candidates.  Now it's 70% less vaudeville and 100% more depressed resignation. 

Pretty much, yep.

[C of heartbreak]

Have we ever had an election that didn't come down to depressed resignation?

[elpollodiablo]

I'm really curious, and hopefully someone here can shed some light on things: what the hell was Giuliani thinking? Is it that he just never really had the sand for this campaign in the first place? Did he really think he could ignore every state save FLA and still win it? I know there are a shit load of delegates there, but how are you gonna ignore the rest of the country if you really want to win? Who the hell gave him this advice, when he was so far ahead in the polls six months ago?

[C of heartbreak]

All his strategists were local NYC politicians with little or no national experience. They probably figured that since Florida was the most populous in the early primaries and one of the most important states in the general election, if they could win that they'd be set with his giant warchest. Or perhaps they just had absolutely no idea how to bring out support in rural areas. Or both.

[Thermofusion]

And another factor is the general distrust of 'New York types" among mainstream Americans.  I don't understand the phenomenon myself (I think it's just jealously) but nevertheless I find a hard time imagining Rudy G and Jethro the cotton farmer sitting in the same room, let alone having a conversation and connecting.  Despite what the Rudy camp may believe, Florida does not consist soley of transplanted Brooklynites.

[elpollodiablo]

Just jealousy? So you think every rural American that doesn't immediately trust a downtown NY lawyer is just jealous, huh?

[Thermofusion]

I was keeding.  I think the distrust is mutual though (New Yorkers aren't going to trust a candidate with a drawl who grew up 50 miles from their nearest neighbor in an earthen lean-to)

[diesel_powered]

I'm going to go with it might be the fact that they resent the arrogance of the "New York types" assuming that running New York is just like running a nation.

[Thermofusion]

I gotta agree with that, too

[C of heartbreak]

Yeah but you have to admit new york basically is the nation.

[guanajuato]

I'm really curious, and hopefully someone here can shed some light on things: what the hell was Giuliani thinking? Is it that he just never really had the sand for this campaign in the first place? Did he really think he could ignore every state save FLA and still win it? I know there are a shit load of delegates there, but how are you gonna ignore the rest of the country if you really want to win? Who the hell gave him this advice, when he was so far ahead in the polls six months ago?

it's because he could have never won in the states prior to florida. states like sc have no use for a guliani. if he had competed in these early primaries and lost as badly as he was going to anyway, that would have been it for his campaign before florida (the media would have wrote him off and subsequently the public). there was a rare chance, had the world revolved the other way for a minute, he might've come in first or second in florida and been in the race and gained momentum enough to get people to invest fresh money into his campaign, and maybe be a contender on super tuesday. etc.

[dieblucasdie]

http://mediamatters.org/items/200801090011?f=s_search

The "Giuliani skipped NH" meme is one that started showing up only after it was clear that Guiliani wasn't going to win in NH.  He spent considerable time and money there.

The truth is that Giuliani's people made losing their "strategy" after-the-fact so it wouldn't look so bad.

Also, Gary, the national polls mean exactly nothing.  We don't have a national primary.

[andronicus]

Giuliani spent a lot of time in Iowa too, and the more time he spent in each state, the faster his numbers dropped.  The idea of 'America's Mayor' running for president is great theoretically to authority-hard-on Republicans.  The problem is Giuliani is a deeply creepy person, profoundly unsuited to retail politicking, and when he campaigns, people actually, you know, meet him.  So his campaign's brilliant idea was to simply not run in any states, and somehow still magically win the primary.  Which is a strategy that's probably never been done, and now we know why.

[elpollodiablo]

The whole thing reminds me of Homer's test-taking strategy

[C of heartbreak]

Also, Gary, the national polls mean exactly nothing.  We don't have a national primary.

Well they mean nothing by themselves, but don't underestimate Hillary and her machine's ability to cover a whole lot of ground on on Super Tuesday. Obama had better hope his victories in the early primaries will be convincing enough to overcome that, because they're the only edge he's got (besides him being the better candidate, but I guess the voters decide that huh?).

Has anyone read Edwards' dropout speech? Obama may have the enthusiasm, but Edwards has him beat in rhetoric fo sho.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/30/AR2008013002142.html

[Good Intentions]

The reports I read indicated that Giuliani put a lot of stake in the very large population of transplanted New Yorkers in Florida.

As far as I understand your arcane and byzantine nomination system, if Giuliani could win Florida he'd be in with a real chance. Except it doesn't look like he ever could.

[dieblucasdie]

Also, Gary, the national polls mean exactly nothing.  We don't have a national primary.

Well they mean nothing by themselves, but don't underestimate Hillary and her machine's ability to cover a whole lot of ground on on Super Tuesday. Obama had better hope his victories in the early primaries will be convincing enough to overcome that, because they're the only edge he's got (besides him being the better candidate, but I guess the voters decide that huh?).

Has anyone read Edwards' dropout speech? Obama may have the enthusiasm, but Edwards has him beat in rhetoric fo sho.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/30/AR2008013002142.html

What, huh?  You're treating the national polls like they're the Super Tuesday state polls, and, no.

Anyway, the most likely outcome (and the one Obama needs) is for nobody to win the nomination on Tuesday.  If he can survive Clinton winning NY, NJ, and CA and make the race about a slugfest on March 4th, he's got a good shot at winning the nomination, since most of the big post-Feb. 5th states are swing states/red states where he'll have an advantage, especially if McCain sews up the GOP nomination, making independents more likely to vote in the Dem race in states where they can.

Of course, Edwards leaving the race changes everything, it's just that no one's sure how quite yet.  Also, the more inevitable McCain looks, the better for Obama.  This could be huge in CA, since it has *so many fucking delegates* and they're awarded proportionally.  Even a slight bump there would be huge for Obama.


edit:  GI, Giuliani already lost Florida and dropped out of the race, and those reports are exaggerated.